Putin’s numerous nuclear war threats from 2007 onwards - a bit like eyes on wings of a butterfly - does it because Russia is weak compared to Soviet Union - not strong
Reminder, this does NOT mean he’d do it. It’s the opposite. He does it because he knows Russia is weak a bit like the way some butterflies have big eyes on their wings to look like a big animal and deter attack.
Contents
Why some butterflies have big very realistic wings - to mimic predator eyes
Why some butterflies have big very realistic wings - to mimic predator eyes
This is the tropical rain forest Owl butterfly and its eye spots in experiments deter small bird predators because they resemble predator eyes.
This study showed modified photos of the owl butterfly to British blue-tits that could never have encountered it and showed that the more life-like eye with the little white sparkle marks that give a kind of 3D illusion to the eye made all the difference, similarly contrasty but not realistic eyes had much less affect by way of startling the predator.
QUOTE STARTS
We conducted an experiment to directly test whether the eye-mimicry or the conspicuousness hypothesis better explain eyespot efficacy. We used great tits (Parus major) as model predator, and tested their reaction towards animated images on a computer display. Birds were tested against images of butterflies without eyespots, with natural-looking eyespots, and manipulated spots with the same contrast but reduced resemblance to an eye, as well as images of predators (owls) with and without eyes. We found that mimetic eyespots were as effective as true eyes of owls and more efficient in eliciting an aversive response than modified, less mimetic but equally contrasting eyespots. We conclude that the eye-mimicry hypothesis explains our results better than the conspicuousness hypothesis and is thus likely to be an important mechanism behind the evolution of butterfly eyespots.
The paper is here,
(Bona et al., 2015. Predator mimicry, not conspicuousness, explains the efficacy of butterfly eyespots)
Look at figure 3 d intensity of aversion and compare BR [Butterfly with real eye spots] with BM [Butterfly with modified eye spots]
I can’t share their images because it’s copyright but I can share a still from the video I just shared of the real butterfly - you see the white sparkle marks - and the BM has intead an eye modified to be very bright and obvious with more contrast if anything than the real butterfly eye.
Similarly Putin bluffs because Russia is weak
In reality Putin also is careful, emotionless, risk averse, calculating and slow to make a decision.
That is for my next debunk but first I thought I’d do a list of all his previous nuclear threats. I’m often asked if Putin’s threats are new to the Ukraine war or he’s done them before. He’s done them for a long time.
The threats it makes are just bluffs. The point in all these threats is to stop NATO from getting involved and try to reduce the flow of advanced weapons from NATO to Ukraine.
Lithuanian deputy foreign minister Mantas Adomėnas - “hype is a typical Russian propaganda move” - “have not cost many people in Lithuania any sleep” - “bumbling barbarian force”
This was back in June 2022 when Lithuania imposed EU sanctions on Russian goods transferred to Kaliningrad via railway through Lithuania
QUOTE Lithuania last week stopped the transit of some goods sanctioned by the EU to Russia's Kaliningrad region. Russia threatens to retaliate, although Lithuania maintains it has not imposed any unilateral restrictions and is only implementing EU sanctions.
. EU Commission to clarify implementation of Kaliningrad transit sanctions – president
And after the meeting:
. Lithuania-enforces-eu-sanctions-on-goods-to-russias-kaliningrad
Russia made vague threats against Lithuania but the Lithuanian deputy foreign minister said the threats have not cost many people in Lithuania any sleep.
He said they were used to them. He said
this excitement and hype is a typical Russian propaganda move. It seems to have impressed far more people in the West than in Lithuania, as we are used to Russian propaganda.
This excitement and hype is a typical Russian propaganda move.
Russian threats have not cost many people in Lithuania any sleep.
We (NATO) are certainly superior to that bumbling barbarian force which we see now rampaging through the cities of Ukraine.
Lithuanian deputy foreign minister Mantas Adomėnas
Welcome, Mr Adomėnas. The term “blockade” has been used to describe Lithuania’s transit ban. Has this action shaken Lithuanian public opinion, or that of the MFA? Are you not tempting the devil?
First, it is not a “blockade”. It is a prohibition to carry European Union (EU) sanctioned goods – which only account for 1-2 per cent of the entire volume of goods which are shipped from Russia to Kaliningrad.
Second, this excitement and hype is a typical Russian propaganda move. It seems to have impressed far more people in the West than in Lithuania, as we are used to Russian propaganda.
We are members of NATO and the EU – these Russian threats have not cost many people in Lithuania any sleep. And I can assure you that I sleep just fine.
For more details see:
BLOG: All that happens in Kaliningrad from Lithuania ban is Russia needs to send its steel, coal etc by ship instead of rail which takes a little over 2 days
— passengers not affected
— and of course lots of diplomatic guestures and words
You can read it here:
https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/All-that-happens-in-Kaliningrad-from-Lithuania-ban-is-Russia-needs-to-send-its-steel-coal-etc-by-ship-instead-of-rail-w
So why weren’t the Lithuanians bothered by it and why did he call it a typical propaganda move?
Well because Russia had been making similar threats for 15 years and Lithuania as a neighbour of Russia and of Kaliningrad is well aware of them.
So I thought to help people who get scared by Putin’s threats that I’d dig into the history and find some of these earlier threats Lithuanian people remember but most Westerners have forgotten. They do include threats against the US but they didn’t get much attention at the time.
The earliest I found was in 2007
2007 - video animation of warheads targeting Florida
This was a video animation of a Russian multiply independently targeted warheads all headed for Florida shown on Russian state TV and adding that Russia could target three US states with one ballistic missile.
The accounts I find of it come from commentary on Putin later re-using a short part of it in 2018 - see later.
The US has similar missiles and doesn’t make a thing about them, nobody will use them on either side
As for Putin’s animated presentation and the satellite image of Florida, the same animation was first shown in a 2007 documentary made by Russia’s government-controlled television Channel One, which featured Russia’s new “invincible” ballistic missile system, called “Satan.”
Unlike Putin’s 2018 video demo, which stopped before the missiles reached their target, the Russian “Satan” in the 2007 animation hit its target and the video ended with simulated explosions over Florida. The narrator in the 2007 production said, in Russian: “Just one such missile is capable of simultaneously destroying three American states, like Maryland, Vermont and Rhode Island.”
https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-new-missile-nuclear-florida-us/6741765.html
Independently confirmed
However, as several of the independent media noticed, among them The Insider(opens in a new tab) and Republic(opens in a new tab), the culmination point of the new video when Florida is bombed appears identical to an animation produced 11 years ago by the Russian state TV station Pervy Kanal. The old video showed the capabilities of another weapon, which was then presented as Russia’s new super weapon – a weapon President Putin in his speech on Thursday said that the new weapon would now replace.
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/the-kremlins-besieged-fortress-narrative-criticised-in-independent-media/
This is about the Sarmat which puts the same number of nukes on fewer missiles not clear why
BLOG: The Sarmat is just Russia’s replacement for their old Ukrainian made Voevoda ICBMs
— with shelf life only up to 2023
— but it keeps blowing up
— nothing special
— US is replacing its ICBMs too
You can read it here:
BLOG: Russia’s Sarmat (Satan 2), nuke capable ICBM, is a nothingburger
— a deterrent
— nothing to do with the war
— announced in 2018
— deployment delayed from 2022 because of issues with test flight
— same nukes on fewer ICBMs
— not clear what point is
You can read it here:
https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Russias-Sarmat-Satan-2-nuke-capable-ICBM-is-a-nothingburger-a-deterrent-nothing-to-do-with-the-war-announced
February 2008 - says if Ukraine hosts NATO missile defences - Russia will target (not attack) Ukraine - but with emotive language
Putin in a joint press conference at the Kremlin with Ukrainian President Yushchenko, responding to the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and hosting U.S. missile defence:
“It is horrible to say and even horrible to think that, in response to the deployment of such facilities in Ukrainian territory, which cannot theoretically be ruled out, Russia could target its missile systems at Ukraine. Just imagine this for a second.” washingtonpost
—
November 2008 - Medvedev as president deploys nuclear capable missiles to Kaliningrad (Russian enclave surrounded by NATO countries)
Medvedev as president and Putin as Prime Minister.
This was in response to US helping NATO improve its defences against Russia. Russia responded by deploying nuclear-capable missiles to Kaliningrad which puts Berlin within reach so it was seen as threatening but not a direct threat to use them.
For example, we had planned to decommission three missile regiments of a missile division deployed in Kozelsk from combat readiness and to disband the division by 2010. I have decided to abstain from these plans. Nothing will disband. Moreover, we will deploy the Iskander missile system in the Kaliningrad Region to be able, if necessary, to neutralise the missile defence system.
This is the official Kremlin transcript.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/1968
March 2014 - Russian TV presenter threatens to turn US into radioactive ash
This is immediately after Russia annexed Crimea
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Russian_annexation_of_Crimea
Propaganda to reassure the Russians that Russia is strong after international condemnation of the annexation of Crimea, not a real threat.
Russian TV presenter threatens to turn the US into radioactive ash
[hyperbole, not possible for any number of nukes to do this]
QUOTE STARTS
Dmitry Kiselyov, who hosts an influential Sunday evening program on the main state-owned channel, posed in front of a mushroom cloud graphic Sunday night and ranted about how Russia is the only country in the world still capable of turning the United States into “radioactive dust.”
He also suggested that President Obama’s hair is graying because of fears about Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Kiselyov is known as a firebrand and last year his diatribe about gays also generated headlines in the West.
He’s also essentially the Kremlin’s propaganda chief, the head of a new state-owned media group aimed at improving Russia’s message at home and abroad. It’s important to see his latest comments in that light: propaganda, not necessarily policy.
His comments seem intended to reassure the public here that Russia - a day after being isolated at the United Nations and on the cusp of being isolated economically from the world - is still a mighty nation capable of standing tall on its own.
https://abcnews.com/International/russian-broadcaster-warns-turning-us-radioactive-dust/story?id=22936988
August 2014 - first threat to use nukes to discourage Ukraine’s allies from helping it liberate Crimea
At the Seliger youth camp, to discourage Ukraine’s allies from helping Ukraine to protect itself from Russia
“Russia is far from being involved in any large-scale conflicts,” he said at the camp on the banks of Lake Seliger. “We don’t want that and don’t plan on it. But naturally, we should always be ready to repel any aggression towards Russia.
“Russia’s partners… should understand it’s best not to mess with us,” said Putin, dressed casually in a grey sweater and light blue jeans.
“Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/dont-mess-with-nuclear-russia-putin-says-idUSKBN0GT1D4/
March 2015 Putin claims he was ready to put his nukes on alert during annexation of Crimea
Putin claims he was ready to put his nukes on alert during the annexation of Crimea (not likely he really was) and said that the reason nobody helped Ukraine is because they didn’t want to start a world war.
“We were ready to do it,” Putin said of putting nuclear forces at the ready, in a nearly three-hour documentary that aired on state television Sunday. The president added that he had fielded many calls from foreign leaders and told them “that this is our historical territory and Russian people live there, they were in danger, and we cannot abandon them.” He said: “It was a frank and open position. And that is why I think no one was in the mood to start a world war.”
https://www.dw.com/en/putin-was-ready-to-use-nukes-in-crimea-standoff/a-18317763
March 2015 - Russia says if Denmark adds a radar system to help with air defences such as Patriot, Russia will target Danish warships with nukes
This is Russia’s Ambassador to Denmark Mikhail Vanin in an opinion piece published in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten,
He said that if Denmark adds a radar system to help NATO with its air defences such as Patriot missile defences that Russia would see that as a threat and target Danish warships with nukes.
This is a very over the top response and led to indignant respones by Denmark.
“I do not think that the Danes fully understand the consequences of what happens if Denmark joins the US-led missile defense,” Ambassador Mikhail Vanin wrote in the daily.
“If this happens, Danish warships become targets for Russian nuclear missiles.”
The statements sparked an angry reaction from Danish Foreign Minister Martin Lidegaard, who called Vanin’s threats “unacceptable” and “completely out of proportion.” He added that “Russia knows very well that NATO’s missile shield is defensive and not targeted at them.”
Mette Gjerskov, who chairs the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs, told French news agency AFP that the Russian comments were “very threatening and not necessary.”
…
Last August, Denmark agreed to contribute at least one frigate with advanced radar capacity to NATO’s missile shield, which already includes missile destroying warships in Spain, PATRIOT anti-missile systems in Turkey, and missile interceptors in Romania.
NATO’s European missile defense system is headquartered in Germany. There are plans to build bases in Poland and Romania, much to Moscow’s displeasure.
https://www.dw.com/en/denmark-could-become-target-of-russian-nuclear-weapons-ambassador-warns/a-18332777
November 2015 - supposedly accidental nuclear torpedo leak
The Kremlin has confirmed that two state-controlled news channels accidentally broadcast secret plans for a nuclear torpedo system.
Russian television stations NTV and Channel One showed a military official looking at a confidential document during a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi.
Mr Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said:
“It’s true some secret data got into the shot, therefore it was subsequently deleted. In future we will undoubtedly take preventive measures so this does not happen again.”
Details of a torpedo system armed with nuclear warheads, to be fired by submarines, were in clear view for several seconds.
Called Status-6, the document says the weapons would inflict massive damage to coastal areas, creating “zones of extensive radioactive contamination, making them unsuitable for military or economic activity for a long period”.
Russian media, meanwhile, has reported that the torpedos would have a range of over 6,200 miles, as well as being able to bypass NATO’s missile defence system.
https://www.forcesnews.com/services/tri-service/russian-tv-accidentally-airs-secret-nuclear-torpedo-plans
This is a google translate using google lens:
March 2018 Putin shares animation of nuke warheads targeting Florida - part of 2007 animation but this time it’s home state of the US president
Putin address to parliament.
I remember this as I was already doing my voluntary fact checking and it scared a lot of people. Putin shared a video animation of a nuke targeting Florida back in Trump’s first term when Trump was president there. Trump didn’t comment on it.
t was during a presentation when Putin talked about supposedly invincible nuclear weapons. Of course they aren’t really.
It is the first example I can find of Putin saying “this is not a bluff”. When of course it is.
As such, I see it is my duty to announce the following. Any use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, weapons of short, medium or any range at all, will be considered as a nuclear attack on this country. Retaliation will be immediate, with all the attendant consequences.
There should be no doubt about this whatsoever. There is no need to create more threats to the world. Instead, let us sit down at the negotiating table and devise together a new and relevant system of international security and sustainable development for human civilisation. We have been saying this all along. All these proposals are still valid. Russia is ready for this.
…
Now we have to be aware of this reality and be sure that everything I have said today is not a bluff ‒ and it is not a bluff, believe me ‒ and to give it a thought and dismiss those who live in the past and are unable to look into the future, to stop rocking the boat we are all in and which is called the Earth.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957
What was especially threatening was to do an animation of the nukes attacking Florida the home state of the president of the USA.
Peskov denied it was Florida but it obviously was.
QUOTE STARTS
When President Vladimir Putin announced on March 1 that Russia has a “new invincible” nuclear ballistic missile, it was a “What the Hell!?” moment for Americans: on a large screen behind Russian leader, a video animation showed the missiles making majestic circles around the globe, change course to avoid obstacles, and ultimately fly to their target – the U.S. State of Florida.
…
The following day, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said his boss’s’ threat “wasn’t tied to any particular country.” Peskov denied the image in Putin’s animated presentation was the State of Florida, claiming it showed “absolutely arbitrary geographical outlines.”
…
“I repeat again, and the President said this: Russia is not going to attack anyone, and these weapons do not pose a threat to anyone who does not harbor the intentions of attacking our country,” Peskov said.
The image on display as the target of Russia’s new nuclear weapon during Vladimir Putin’s presentation was easily recognizable as the exact replica of a satellite image of the State of Florida available publically on the Geology.com Website
As for Putin’s animated presentation and the satellite image of Florida, the same animation was first shown in a 2007 documentary made by Russia’s government-controlled television Channel One, which featured Russia’s new “invincible” ballistic missile system, called “Satan.”
Unlike Putin’s 2018 video demo, which stopped before the missiles reached their target, the Russian “Satan” in the 2007 animation hit its target and the video ended with simulated explosions over Florida. The narrator in the 2007 production said, in Russian: “Just one such missile is capable of simultaneously destroying three American states, like Maryland, Vermont and Rhode Island.”
https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-new-missile-nuclear-florida-us/6741765.html
October 2018 - Putin says Russia will never do a nuclear first strike but makes bizarre claim about going to heaven for a second strike
At the annual Valdai Discussion Club forum
Putin says Russia would never carry out a nuclear first strike but then claims to laughter that if Russia uses nukes to retaliate it will go to heaven while if the US does first use of nukes then they will just die and not go to heaven.
Mr Putin vowed that Russia would never carry out a first nuclear strike.
But hit us, he warned any potential aggressors, and we’ll hit back.
His statement then morphed into a dark joke.
As Russians would be the victims of such a strike, Mr Putin argued, they would be “martyrs and go to heaven, whilst [the aggressors] would just croak. Because they wouldn’t even have time to repent”.
The end-of-the-world quip tripped easily off his tongue, to be met by a burst of approving chuckles.
“It’s impossible to imagine [Soviet President] Brezhnev making that kind of joke in the 1960s,” one foreign policy analyst back in Moscow pointed out.
The problem with all the war talk, Andrei Kortunov suggested, is that politicians on both sides have lost their terror of a nuclear strike. That fear ended, he thinks, with the Cold War.
“They just don’t believe it will ever happen now,” Mr Kortunov said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45976459
February 2019: Ready for another Cuban Missile-style crisis if you want one
In 2019 he said “I’m ready for another Cuban Missile-style crisis if you want one”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia is militarily ready for a Cuban Missile-style crisis if the United States wanted one and threatened to place hypersonic nuclear missiles on ships or submarines near U.S. territorial waters.
The Cuban Missile Crisis erupted in 1962 when Moscow responded to a U.S. missile deployment in Turkey by sending ballistic missiles to Cuba, sparking a standoff that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.
More than five decades on, tensions are rising again over Russian fears that the United States might deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe, as a landmark Cold War-era arms-control treaty unravels.
Putin’s comments, made to Russian media late on Wednesday, follow his warning that Moscow will match any U.S. move to deploy new missiles closer to Russia by stationing its own missiles closer to the United States or by deploying faster missiles or both.
Putin detailed his warning for the first time, saying Russia could deploy hypersonic missiles on ships and submarines which could lurk outside U.S. territorial waters if Washington now moved to deploy intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe.”
February 2019 - if US deploys short or intermediate-range missiles in Europe, Russia will target US itself
“It’s their right to think how they want. But can they count? I’m sure they can. Let them count the speed and the range of the weapons systems we are developing,” Putin told Russia’s political elite to strong applause.
“Russia will be forced to create and deploy types of weapons which can be used not only in respect to those territories from which the direct threat to us originates but also in respect to those territories where the centres of decision-making are located,” he said.
https://www.trtworld.com/article/12715894
It’s meaningless as both sides have missiles like that already - but said in threatening language.
April 2021 - mention of “red line” for provocations that threaten Russia’s core interests
In his annual state-of-the-nation address, with explicit reference to nuclear capabilities:
We really want to maintain good relations with all those engaged in international communication, including, by the way, those with whom we have not been getting along lately, to put it mildly. We really do not want to burn bridges. But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, swift and tough.
Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time.
At the same time, I just have to make it clear, we have enough patience, responsibility, professionalism, self-confidence and certainty in our cause, as well as common sense, when making a decision of any kind. But I hope that no one will think about crossing the “red line” with regard to Russia. We ourselves will determine in each specific case where it will be drawn.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65418—
November 2021 mention of red line if anyone gives Ukraine hypersonic missiles targeted at Russia (allies had no such plan)
At an investment forum on 30 November 2021, claims falsely that its allies wanted to give it hypersonic missiles targeted at Russia and threatens back
He expressed concern that NATO could eventually use the Ukrainian territory to deploy missiles capable of reaching Moscow in just five minutes.
“The emergence of such threats represents a ‘red line’ for us,” Putin said. “I hope that it will not get to that and common sense and responsibility for their own countries and the global community will eventually prevail.”
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/11/30/putin-warns-west-moscow-has-red-line-about-ukraine-nato/
The speech in context:
You have asked about Ukraine and where the red lines run. They are, above all, the threats to us that can come from that territory. If the enlargement, the infrastructure continues to be enlarged – I have said this publicly, but you are businesspeople and may not have the time to follow this, I will repeat this once again that the issue concerns the possible deployment in the territory of Ukraine of strike systems with the flight time of 7–10 minutes to Moscow, or 5 minutes in the case of hypersonic systems. Just imagine that. Incidentally, you live in Moscow, as far as I know. East Capital is in Moscow, isn’t it? The flight time to Moscow is 5 minutes [for these systems].
Jacob Grapengiesser: Yes, I have been living in Moscow for the past 15 years.
Vladimir Putin: So, what should we do? We would need to create similar systems to be used against those who are threatening us. Can you imagine that?
But we can do this already now, because we have held successful tests, and early next year we will put a new sea-launched hypersonic missile with a maximum speed of Mach 9 on combat duty. The flight time to those who issue orders will also be 5 minutes.
Where are we heading? Why are we doing this? The creation of such threats for us is the red line.
I hope it will not come to this. I hope that common sense and responsibility for one’s country and the international community will prevail after all.
https://web.archive.org/web/20211222223650/http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67241
And that is the last one I have before the Ukraine war.
On the day of the full scale invasion:
I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
None of that happened of course.
How this fits the rest of my debunk (ready soon)
Putin has been doing these nuclear bluffs since 2007. They are not new to the war. And Putin is not cornered at all. Zelensky is asking for a ceasefire. That is no threat to Russia. From the beginning of the war Ukraine has only wanted to liberate occupied Ukraine. There has never been any risk to Russia itself.
Now Ukraine is just asking to stop the fighting along the current lines. And Russia agreed to 18 of the 20 points in the ceasefire and all he has to do is agree to a ceasfire and negotiate the remaining points.
Putin can stop all the drone attacks deep in Russia simply by agreeing to stop his utterly pointless attacks on Ukrainian cities which are of almost no military advantage. While the Ukrainian attacks are all designed to protect Ukraine. The Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities are not designed to protect Russia but just to terrorize Ukrainians
And he can agree to a complete ceasefire at any point too.
And he is very risk averse. My debunk starts with lots of evidence of that. He is not someone who takes risks. His usual thing to do when facing a problem is to just do nothing for weeks to months.
And if Putin used a tactical nuke he would immediately lose the support of China or India.
I have all the material in my debunk now and the main issue is it is very long. So I need to work on the structure. The thing is there are SO MANY things that need to be debunked / fact checked.
