Why Europeans can never join the war with Iran - the Iranians proposed a far stronger than JCPOA deal before the war started - no sunset clauses so no nukes ever - and Europe never opposed the JCPOA
- and Trump is just trying to achieve the impossible by withdrawing US soldiers from Germany
Summary in points:
NATO is defensive, only to protect members’ territory north of the tropics
Members of NATO sometimes support opposing sides in foreign wars
US bases in Europe are built on foreign territory under mutual agreements with the member countries
[Each summary in points summarizes what I am about to say so you an get the main ideas by just reading the points - or depending on how you prefer material to be presented, skip all the points and read the sentences]
The background is that NATO is a defensive alliance and article 5 and article 4 can only be used to defend the territory of member countries north of the tropics.
The US has various bases in countries in Europe but the bases are built on foreign territory and its rights depend on it’s arrangements with those countries. It doesn’t have the automatic right to use bases set up to defend NATO countries to conduct wars against countries in the Middle East or anywhere.
Members of NATO sometimes even support opposing sides in foreign wars e.g. France and Italy supported opposing sides in the Libyan civil wars after Gaddafi. So there is no basis to this idea that if the US attacks Iran that everyone in NATO should support its attack.
UK and France would normally support US in the Middle East
But this is nothing to do with NATO and is out of their special relationships with the US
Even after Greenland etc, they would likely have supported the US in a legal well motivated war especially if it consulted with them in advance
UK and France would normally support US operations in the Middle East. But that is a matter of close mutual connections between those countries, nothing to do with NATO. That’s been damaged a bit with the things about Greenland especially, but even so,, if the US had talked to UK and France in advance and it was a well motivated war and it listened to their concerns you’d expect them to act together.
The history that makes this different: Nobody in Europe supports Iran but they DID support the JCPOA
When Trump pulled out of JCPOA in his first term he used the power of the dollar to stop billions of dollars of European trade with Iran
But this time there’s a history that makes it different from e.g. support of operations in Afghanistan and Syria.
Nobody in NATO supports Iran in the war. But the Europeans DID support the JCPOA and Europe had a huge foreign trade of billions of dollars of peaceful technology with Iran that was stopped suddenly when Trump pulled out of the JCPOA. The US had almost no trade with Iran.
European countries didn’t agree that Iran had broken any terms of the JCPOA either. So they supported continuing the JCPOA and looking for a way to strengthen it before it expired not pulling out. Indeed the Europeans tried for some time to keep the JCPOA going after the US pulled out but the US was able to use the power of the US dollar to force Europe to stop trading with Iran against its own wishes cutting off billions of dollars of trade.
So there was that background already from Trump’s first term. Trump forced Europe to stop billions of dollars of peaceful trade with Iran when Europe continued to support the JCPOA and didn’t agree with reimposing sanctions on Iran.
This time, Iran offered a deal to Trump far stronger than the JCPOA, zero stockpiles for ever with no sunset clause so Iran could never develop nukes
Naturally European countries that never had any issues with the JCPOA supported continuing negotiations on this proposal
Then this time, just before the Iran war, Iran offerd a deal to Trump for zero stockpiles for ever. This would guarantee that Iran never has nukes and is far stronger than JCPOA.
Naturally the European members of NATO, who never had any problems with the JCPOA, wanted Trump to follow through and continue with the negotiations to achieve this far stronger than JCPOA deal.
Trump authorized Netanyahu to assassinate the Supreme Leader of Iran without consultation with Europe
He was likely assassinated while working with decision makers on the details of the proposal for the following Monday talks
Instead, Trump gave Netanyahu the authorization to assassinate the Ayatollah, Supreme Leader of Iran before he knew that the US had rejected the deal. The Israelis bombed a meeting between Ali Khameneii and top decision makers in his own house in Tehran.
One of the top items on the agenda in that meeting was likely to prepare for the next round of talks on the Monday after the Sunday when he was assassinated.
The previous Friday, Iran had offered to Witkoff and Kushner by far the best deal that Iran has EVER offered to the US. The UK was liaising closely with Iran and the US at the time so they know a lot about what was in it.
Obama assembled a huge team of Arms Control Experts for the JCPOA and US negotiators familiarized themselves with terms like
how Arms Control works
inspections
levels of enrichment, stockpiles and enrichment capacity (how much you can enrich at once)
How all that interacts to calculate the breakout times
Trump has sent two real estate developers who have no support and are not even able to understand what the head of the IAEA tries to explain to them
For the JCPOA, Obama assembled a huge team of Arms Control Experts and the US negotiators familiarized themselves with how Arms Control works and the function of inspections, levels of enrichment, stockpiles, enrichment capacity and how all that interacts to give the breakout times. They got experts to work out the effects of all the details of the deal on breakout times. This involved detailed reasearch and calculations.
Trump did none of that. He still hasn’t assembled a team of Arms Control Experts. Witkoff and Kuschner talked ot the head of the IAEA but didn’t understand what he was saying.
Witkoff got suspicious about harmless medical research reactors that can’t be used to enrich uranium
He didn’t share these concerns with Iran but said everything looks fine
The Omani mediator flew out to talk to Vance on the Saturday before the war started and also talked to CBS about his concerns
This is a highly technical area. But instead Witkoff looked at what the Iranians offered and he had a hunch that the details about the medical research reactors were an attempt to secretly add in the ability to make nukes by the back door (medical research reactors can’t be used to enrich uranium). Wiktoff and Kushner were all smiles and told the Iranians that the deal looked great and went away but the Omani mediator Badr Albusaidi had concerns that they hadn’t understood the Iranian proposal and he flew to the US on the Saturday and was able to talk to Vance but not to Witkoff. He also appeared on CBS news talking publicly about his concerns on the day before the Iran war started.
On the previous Friday 26, each side agreed to take the proposals back to their own capitals to prepare for the next round on the Monday.
This MUST have been top of Ali Khamenei’s agenda when he was assassinated by Israel in the middle of a meeting with decision makers in his own home
The arrangement they came to on Friday 26 in Geneva was that each side in the team that met in Geneva would report back to their respective capitals and then the Iranians would work on the details of their plan and present it to the Americans for the next round of talks on the Monday. At the time as someone following it closely this seemed VERY PROMISING.
This more worked out detailed plan to show to the US MUST have been what the Supreme Leader was discussing with decision makers in his home on the Sunday morning when the Israelis with the indirect support of the Americans assassinated him. His son Motjaba survived with possibly serious injuries.
Trump, Witkoff and Kushner likely still believe that the meeting was to foster some cunning anti-American plot for the Monday
Arms Control Association and other experts all agree that the Iran deal looked genuine and should have been followed up further
Trump, Witkoff and Kushner as far as one can tell have no idea that this is the case. They likely still believe the Iranians were trying to pull a fast one on them in the Friday meeting in Geneva, and likely believe that the Sunday morning meeting which the Israelis bombed was planning some kind of cunning anti-American plot for the following Monday.
But there is every reason to suppose that their proposal was genuine. What I say here is based on the assessment by the Arms Control Association, the Omani mediator, Laura Rozen, respected US journalist who follows Iran deal negotiations particularly closely and others.
UK sees this as a war that would be illegal for them to join and with no clear objectives
So they can’t take part
Also since then Trump even did a tweet that most independent experts on international law say was a war crime - the tweet itself - to threaten to erase a civilization.
So this is the reason why UK and France refused to take part in the law. Kier Starmer is an expert in international law and has written books on the topic. He said he wouldn’t let UK soldiers take part unless it was legal and had a clear objective. He saw neither.
The Strait of Hormuz is only blocked as the result of this war
European countries don’t see more war as a way to unblock it
They see the way ahead as negotiations
They are ready to help with demining and with protecting shipping in the Strait once the war is completely over
And the top concern of the Europeans now is to open the Strait of Hormuz which is only an issue because of this war which they never supported. And Trump wants them to join the war which they think will just make the situation worse not better and they still see the war as illegal.
They want the US to stop all this military activity and listen to the Iranians and negotiate in earnest with them. And they have offered to help the US to clear the strait once the war is over and to protect shipping once the blockades are lifted and the war is completely over.
This is not because of cowardice as Trump likes to present it. The UK has been involved in many dangerous and hazardous operations with the US such as in Afghanistan. It is because they see no purpose to be achieved by fighting, they think it will just make it worse, and see the war itself as illegal.
In talks right now between Iran and US - IAEA are not involved - and US doesn’t want European experts in Arms Control - wants to keep it to Vance, Witkoff and Kushner
This means it is impossible to achieve a detailed workable Arms Control deal, at this stage, just some simple statement of sentence or two
In these talks with Iran right now, the IAEA are not involved, the US hasn’t assembled Arms Control Experts and it doesn’t want European experts on Arms Control either. The US is willing to involve the IAEA in details on inspections later on. But they don’t want them involved right now.
The Iranians on their side are very expert on Arms control, how the IAEA works, nuclear technology, breakout times, enrichment levels, enrichment capacity. They have veterans from the JCPOA talks on their team. But none of this works with Trump’s team.
So the Iranians have to try to get something together they can present in very simplistic terms to a team of two very pro Israel real estate developers that see the IAEA itself as people to keep out of the negotiations until later.
Why the Iranians will only negotiate face to face with Vance, won’t negotiate with Witkoff unless he is present
Not because they don’t like Witkoff personally - they got on well at a personal level
Because Witkoff has twice assured them that the deals are going well when the negotiations were at their most promising from the Iranian side
just before the US authorized massive striked by Iran
The Iranians are willing to negotiate with Vance. He has been opposed to the war all along. He is not strongly pro Israel to the extent Witkoff is.
Also for the Iranians, Wiktoff has already not just once but twice told the Iranians that everything is fine and then Trump has authorized Israel to attack them without warning. Both times, from their side the negotiations are at their most promising for a breakthrough, and the Americans didn’t say they had major issues or try to resolve them.
Vance doesn’t have this history. So they are willing to talk to him. But Vance doens’t know anything about arms control either.
So Iran has tried for some weeks to get a simple one or two stentence type proposals about enrichment that Trump might agree to
Iran can’t agree to zero enrichment, and to depend only on enriched uranium provided by the US
That would give the US a huge lever over Iran in the future
They also see the right to enrich your own fuel for civilian purposes as a right under the Non Proliferation Treaty
So they tried to get together simple one sentence type proposals that Trump might be able to agree to.
Iran can’t agree to zero enrichment. They see enriching their own uranium as part of their own nuclear energy security.
If they agree to the US proposal, which is to give the US control over the supply of enriched uranium to Iran, a future US president could withhold the enriched fuel in return for concessions or just stop supplying it altogether.
They also see enrichment as a right under the Non Proliferation Treaty.
This is a consensus over the entire range of Iranian politics, nobody from the far right to the most moderate can agree to zero enrichment
There are many differences of view between different factions on the Iranian side but none of them from the most moderate to the hard right could ever agree to zero enrichment.
So Trump is trying to force them to do something impossible.
Iranians MIGHT be able to agree to
American inspectors in addition to the IAEA inspectors
an enrichment consortium where all the Arab states depend on each other with stockpiles held in Saudi Arabia, a US ally
even to all the enrichment done in a vulnerable Irnaian island in the Strait of Hormuz, or even in Iran
There are many other things they could agree to. There were hints after the Geneva meeting that the Iranians were prepared even to have American inspectors further down the road in addition to IAEA inspectors. Then there were ideas to enrich with a joint Arab consortium. Where they all depend on each other, and perhaps the stockpiles are held in Saudi Arabia which is close to the US politically.
A US physicist suggested the Iranians might even be prepared to have the enrichment all done in Oman. Others suggested that the only Iranian enrichment is all done in a militarily exposed island in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran can also agree to suspend enrichment for 5 years Maybe 10. Well beyond Trump’s presidency so that a future president can then negotiate with them with a proper Arms Control team.
Iran might be able to agree to all sorts of things to weaken its side miltiarily. But NOT zero enrichment.
Iran suggested both sides unblock the Strait of Hormuz
with a timetable of 30 days for a nuclear deal
More recently Iran suggested just unblocking the Strait of Hormuz and setting a timetable like 30 days to sort out the nuclear issue.
So there are lots of ways forward here.
Trump can stop the war at any time and announce an agreement much stronger than JCPOA
But he is focusing on an impossible task, zero enrichment, seems to think that with enough pressure Iran will agree
If he had better understanding of Iranian politics he’d know this is impossible
Trump can stop this war at any time and announce a much stronger than JCPOA agreement. That is what European countries want him to do.
But Trump wants to achieve something that all previous US administrations have agreed is impossible, to force Iran to agree to zero enrichment and to depend on nuclear fuel provided by the US.
Trump also wants the Iranians to transfer their 60% enriched uranium to the US
Under the JCPOA they transferred it to Russia
Again no Iranian politician could support transferring it to the US
And he also wants them to transfer their 60% enriched uranium to the US. Under the JCPOA they gave it to Russia which is prepared to accept it again. It’s an insignificant amount of enriched uranium for either the US or Russia. But politically Iran simply can’t give it to the US, again the entire range of political opinion in Iran is opposed.
European countries
do NOT support Iran
DO support a stronger than JCPOA deal
do NOT support military action to try to open the Strait, believe that will make things worse
So the European countries do NOT support Iran but they DO support a stronger than JCPOA deal and they did NOT support the military attacks on Iran.
This is why even the UK put limits on US use of its bases in the war
And Spain went as far as to prohibit flights related to the war over Spain
So that is why some countries like Spain went as far as to prohibit the US from flying over Spain on the way to the Middle East to attack Iran. That is also why even the UK prohibited the US from using the UK base in Cyprus to attack Iran and would only permit it to use US bases on UK territory much further away if they were for specific defensive rather than offensive objectives such as destroying missile launchers.
Trump is trying to force Europeans to support the war by withdrawing a few thousand soldiers from Germany
But this is again him trying to achieve the impossible
So Trump again is trying the impossible. He is trying to get Europe to suport the Iran war by withdrawing some soldiers from Germany. But they can’t. There is no way that any European country is going to support the war.
They will support the US side in negotiations after the war is over and support opening the Strait and they are willing to assemble and send teams of Arms Control negotiators themselves to help the US if they US wants them. They are willing to help with demining. They can help protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz once the war is over.
But not to fight Iran or blockade Iranian ports and not to try to open the Strait of Hormuz by military force.
So Trump again will likely keep trying to achieve the impossible. His aim isn’t to withdraw US soldiers from Europe. His aim is to try to get European countries to support his war. But that won’t happen.
So Trump will likely keep trying to achieve the impossible
But at some point he will just give up and CO in TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)
He does it in such a way that you never catch him in the process of shifting. He just has suddenly shifted with no explanation of how he got there. Almost like teleporting.
That is my next debunk in the main substack mid edit
Just to add, the US can’t reduce its total in Europe to less than 76,000 for more than 45 days unless senior defense officials certify to Congress that such a move is in the national interest and that NATO allies were consulted.
Trump approved it and this is in the final text.
QUOTE STARTS
—The certification described in this subsection is a certification by the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Commander of the United States European Command, the Secretary of State, and the Director of National Intelligence, to the congressional defense committee … that, as applicable, a reduction of the total number of members of the Armed Forces permanently stationed in or deployed to the area of responsibility of the United States European Command below 76,000
…
(1) is in the national security interest of the United States; and
(2) is being undertaken only after appropriate consultations with all North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies and relevant non-NATO partners….
https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/s2296/BILLS-119s2296es.pdf
It’s long and detailed, that’s just a short snippet. Much detail about what has to be included, and for instance they also have to provide an unclassified version of the certification.