No reason to worry about yet another shutdown in the USA - three of them in Trump's first term
Shutdowns are normally common but under Biden there was a period of 4 years without one.
Every recent president has had a shutdown except Biden and George W. Bush (between Clinton and Obama) back to Carter. It came close to shut down in December 2024 under Biden but never happened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States#List_of_federal_shutdowns
The shutdown that nearly happened towards the end of Biden’s term:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjzwq7pg0go
This is what happens during a shutdown:
The government itself continues, the legislators’ salaries aren’t affected. Essential services continue with workers doing it without pay (all their pay is get’s refunded when it ends). Non essential services stop, same arrangement get their pay when the shutdown ends but the workers stop working.
There were three shutdowns in Trump’s first term including the longest in US history for over a month from December 22, 2018 to Jan 25, 20190. With that precedent it’s not a big surprise that he is in shutdown again.
A shutdown can have a minute effect on the GDP. Not going to push the US into a recession or anything like that though.
The 5 week shutdown in 2018-9 likely reduced the US GDP by 0.02% overall though n the short term it reduced it by 0.1 GDP for the fourth quarter of 2018 and by 0.2% for the first quarter of 2019.
As a share of quarterly real GDP, the level of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 was reduced by 0.1 percent, CBO estimates. And the level of real GDP in the first quarter of 2019 is expected to be reduced by 0.2 percent. (The effect on the annualized quarterly growth rate in those quarters will be larger.)
In subsequent quarters, GDP will be temporarily higher than it would have been in the absence of a shutdown. Although most of the real GDP lost during the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 will eventually be recovered, CBO estimates that about $3 billion will not be. That amount equals 0.02 percent of projected annual GDP in 2019. In other words, the level of GDP for the full calendar year is expected to be 0.02 percent smaller than it would have been otherwise.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Most people won’t notice much unless you are a federal employee. Federal workers who do essential services continue to work without pay for the duration of the shutdown. Most Federal employees are told not to report for work though when the shutdown is over they also all get back pay for the duration of the shutdown. This is guaranteed in law.
For more about what happens during a government shutdown see:
This time, both parties tried to postpone the shutdown - and both parties voted against the other party’s solution.
So now there will be at least a short term government shutdown.
This is from last week about the build up to it:
QUOTE STARTS
Next week, Congress is on recess. In fact, Congress has already left for that recess. So you think maybe they could come back Monday? No. Speaker Johnson and his team decided late today that they will not be in session in the House the 29th or 30th. So, William, what this means is, as you and I sit here, really, unless the Senate passes the House bill passed today, then there will be a government shutdown.
And, right now, Democrats don’t have that appetite. They say this is their time to stand up to Donald Trump. They say they want more money for health care specifically. It is really a back-and-forth. And here is how each side put it today.
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY):
We do not want a shutdown. Our position has never changed. We need bipartisan legislation to keep the government open and meet the needs of the American people, especially on costs, specifically health care costs. But until Republicans break free from Donald Trump’s grip, they’re dragging this country straight into another shutdown.
Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA):
They’re not being reasonable at all. A short-term C.R. is not a partisan exercise. We could have loaded this up with partisan provisions, but we’re not doing that because we’re governing in a responsible manner. I hope Chuck Schumer and the Democrats in the Senate will do the same.
Lisa Desjardins:
This is a test for everyone, but especially Leader Schumer. He’s really never done this before, making demands that could lead to a shutdown.
William Brangham:
So the leaders are talking shutdown. Where do rank-and-file members sit?
Lisa Desjardins:
Well, if you talk to Republicans, they believe that Democrats will be blamed. Democrats are less sure. They think that, if they put this message out that Trump needs to be stood up to, that this is their one time to draw some lines with him, that that will help them.
Now, both parties are more than a year away from an election. But when you talk to Democrats, you really also get this sense, William, that they don’t have an off-ramp plan. They don’t know how a shutdown would end. And that really puts us in a potentially precarious situation as we go down into it, potentially as soon as a week, a little bit more than a week from now.
William Brangham:
So what are the odds?
Lisa Desjardins:
You know I don’t like to speculate about these things. Of course, I always have my own opinion, but I will say they’re very high that we will have a shutdown, I would say as high as 80 percent or more. The only possibility out of one is that the Senate returns next week and Chuck Schumer changes his mind. That’s not likely.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/stopgap-measures-to-avoid-government-shutdown-fail-in-senate
The House and Senate typically haggle over the budgets and if they can’t agree a budget then that is when you get government shutdowns. They can do a continuing resolution as a stopgap which just continues the budget for the previous year into the next year as they haggle over details of the new budget.
Explanation in Wikipedia.
QUOTE STARTS
Under the United States budget process established in 1921, the US government is funded by twelve appropriations bills that are formed as a response to the presidential budget request submitted to Congress in the first few months of the previous calendar year. The various legislators in the two chambers of Congress negotiate over the precise details of the various appropriations bills. In some politically contentious years when these negotiation processes deadlock, the Legislative Branch passes a continuing resolution that essentially extends the current funding levels into the new fiscal year until a budget can be agreed upon by a majority of both houses and signed into law by the President of the United States. Supplemental appropriations bills can provide additional appropriations for emergencies and other matters.
These appropriations bills are classified as discretionary spending, and make up around 22% of federal expenditures. The remainder is classified as mandatory spending, which includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, as well as interest on debt.[2]
This gives a short intro to the filibuster and how that is used to stop bills in Congress but expect you know it.
. Understanding Political Gridlock: Causes and Solutions