A mathematician's joke from 1960: the human population can't grow to infinity by Nov 13, 2026 - or ever - the humorous impossible prediction of Heinz Von Foester
This is a joke from 1960 by Heinz Von Foester. Did a mathematical analysis just fitting equations to population growth, and he found it was growing faster and faster with the doubling time getting shorter and shorter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinz_von_Foerster#Doomsday_equation.
He came up with an equation that predicted an infinite population by 2026. This of course is not a valid way of projecting te future to just fit equations to a curve and it was meant as a joke.
We have already reached peak child.
To reach an infinite population by 2026, people would need to have more and more children or have children reach adulthood sooner and sooner.
For instance it could be the average family size increasing without limit, first 10 kids per family per decade, then 100, then 1000, then 10,000 and as we approach 2026 over the last few years and then days families would have to have a a thousand kids a year, then a million kids per day then a million per hour, then a googol kids per family per minute in the last few minutes then googols of kids per second then googols of kids per microsecond and so on more and more with the time from one generation to the next getting shorter and shorter without limit.
This is obviously impossible. It is just meant as humour. Showing the absurd results of fitting an equation without understanding the biological basis for the curve.
This is about how it was a joke originally
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinz_von_Foerster#Doomsday_equation
In reality family sizes are falling everywhere, with some countries like Japan and India already below replacement. Globally we reached peak child in 2017, with and the population is growing now through people living longer rather than through more kids in the world.
See: https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth?insight=the-world-has-passed-peak-child-#key-insights
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Peak child in 2017 at 690.36 million kids under age 5.
The population is now growing through people living longer, the number of kids is never going to go above 700 million with current projections.
Our population continues to grow mainly because people are living longer.
We can continue to feed everyone on all scenarios.
See:
BLOG: We can grow enough food for everyone through to 2100 and beyond on all scenarios
We are increasingly following the sustainable development path. This is not a path of avoiding the worst of climate chaos. It is a path that is far better than that. It leads to growth in everything we value.
BLOG: Fact Check: IPCC’s Transformative Change Maximises GOOD QUALITY OF LIFE With GROWTH In Everything We Value, Not COLLAPSE